The Future of Work – Part 2

Whether you believe it or not or whether you like it or not the future is going to disrupt your life. This means that we are definitely going to do things differently. This revolution has already started, and it is driven by AI – Artificial Intelligence. Through our smartphones and Apps we have readily accepted these changes.

Remember these terms

Artificial Intelligence AI and Machine Learning ML and Algorithms

So what is AI?

AI is (a science of) Computers emulating humans and ML – Machine learning is the method behind how machines learn from data

What does artificial intelligence do

Artificial intelligence – or AI for short – is technology that enables a computer to think or act in a more ‘human’ way. It does this by taking in information from its surroundings and deciding how to respond based on what it learns or senses.

What can artificial intelligence be used for?

Artificial intelligence, or AI, is the use of computer science programming to imitate human thought and action by analyzing data and surroundings, solving or anticipating problems and learning or self-teaching to adapt to a variety of tasks.

Artificial intelligence in business management

Applications of AI in business management include:

  • Throwing out the junk from your emails
  • smart email categorisation
  • voice to text features
  • smart personal assistants, such as Siri, Cortana and Google Now
  • automated responders and online customer support
  • process automation
  • sales and business forecasting
  • security surveillance
  • smart devices that adjust according to behaviour
  • automated insights, especially for data-driven industries (eg financial services or e-commerce)

Artificial intelligence in e-commerce

AI in e-commerce can be evident in:

  • smart searches and relevance features
  • personalisation as a service – telling you what you can find in your area including where to buy those things that you like and what is the best prices
  • product recommendations and purchase predictions
  • fraud detection and prevention for online transactions
  • dynamic price optimisation 

Here is a real Life example of the application of Algorhithms in Artificial intelligence AI and the need for continues education. It is taken from a book by Emily Guendelsberger, author of the new book, “On the Clock.”

Algorithms are Changing Low-Wage Work…

Big-name restaurant chains, like McDonalds and Chipotle, have started to offer free or subsidized college education options to their workers. The idea is that this can help those employers recruit and retain workers by offering educational benefits, and also offer them a path to more lucrative careers.

But there is a price to pay

and how well do these new benefits work in practice? What kinds of people do they best serve?

The author of the book spent at least a month working three different low-wage jobs—at a McDonalds restaurant, an Amazon warehouse, and at a customer-service call center. The culture she saw at these jobs was very different from what she remembers 20 years ago when she scooped ice cream for minimum wage as a teenager.

She describes what she experienced as “cyborg jobs,” meaning they often treat employees more like robots than people. One example, she says is that many service jobs now use algorithms to schedule when employees work, and the machine often isn’t shy about handing out assignments that she sees as unreasonable.

Consider what workers call a “clopen,”

Clopens or computerized work schedules. It is one of the most challenging things for many low-wage workers these days. You don’t have a regular schedule anymore. Your schedule is set by an algorithm that sort of analyzes what they think the demand is going to be that day, They use data from the previous year and the previous month.

But if it’s a computer that tells you, “Oh yeah, this is the schedule.” It just prints out and you’re really not sure how it came up with that… then it sort of erases culpability.”

However, if you’re using the data from the previous week it means giving people are given a schedule the day before.There’s no predictability, which is incredibly hard if you’re trying to plan anything in your life whatsoever, especially having kids.”

The algorithms are used to try to keep staffing levels as low as possible, which means more hectic days for workers—and more stress.

Welcome to the 21st Century

The Future of Work – Part 1

In this series we try to focus on “new Jobs” of the 21st Century

Ricardo Hausmann, director of Harvard’s Centre for International Development and a Centre senior fellow, pointed out:

How mechanization has reduced the work force

The diminishing role of manufacturing in job creation means we must look to new pathways for moving people from poverty to prosperity.

As technological innovation transforms our economies, workers all over the world are doing whatever it takes to change their conditions. Whether crossing borders, changing jobs, or starting businesses – for a chance to thrive.

Yet workers in transition are often highly vulnerable. What will it take to safeguard workers in the labour market of the future?

In the not-too-distant past, most workers were employed in the same industry – often at the same company – for most of their careers.

But today, nearly 40% of employed people in the European Union are in atypical employment or self-employed. They are not working under a full-time, open-ended contract. On the other hand, the average worker in American today will hold 11 jobs over their lifetime, with many working multiple jobs at once.

HOW THE FUTURE CAN POSSIBLY PAN OUT?

  • As living conditions improve Life Expectancy will increase – people may live longer
  • With the rapid development of Artificial Intelligence (AI),Internet of Things (IOT) and Robotics technological innovation will transform our economies
  • many people will be working multiple jobs at once
  • There will no longer be standard contracts
  • life-long learning will be the norm

Technology will continue to substitute workers

It is not clear to what extent technology will continue to substitute workers in both routine manual and cognitive tasks as ever more capable robotics and algorithms amplified by artificial intelligence develop. The impacts of this, on employment and income will be, uneven sectors, workers, communities and nations.

Laura Tyson, distinguished professor of the Hass Business School, University of California, Berkeley and a senior fellow with the Centre, said,

“The resultant dislocation and transition costs associated with technological changes have fallen unevenly on sectors, workers, communities and nations.”

In this context, advancing inclusive growth is a precondition for the future of work.

https://www.mastercardcenter.org/insights/future-work-depends-inclusive-growth

Manufacturing jobs have been particularly hard-hit by technology. In the United States, people employed in manufacturing have fallen by about two-thirds in the last 50 years. This was mostly caused by technological changes as opposed to trade and globalization.

Since 1999 the US lost a total of 5 million manufacturing job

Source: US Bureau of Labour Statistics

Manufacturing rapid decline 1939 -2010
training – training and retraining

The Effect of Technology

Men without a college degree have also been unduly affected.

In 1964, 36.6 percent of U.S. men without a college education were employed in manufacturing. By 2014, that share was down to 10.1 percent. For these men, manufacturing was their best chance of earning a middle-class income and thus, its collapse was devastating.

New technologies typically increase demand for skilled workers while substituting the unskilled. At the same time, new technologies increase productivity. A more productive economy means higher income in the aggregate, which generates more demand for goods and services in the economy, leading to stronger job creation. In this context, even automation would create more jobs for people.

Again the emphasis is on skills. This in turn points to upskilling of workers and life time learning. The 4IR is pointing to the rapid change in technology. The effect of 5G hasn’t been measured. All that we know for certain is that IoT is showing a upward growth trajectory.

Manufacturing has been the chief employment sector firstly in western countries secondly in East and Southeast Asia and most recently China. But it obvious from the graph above that jobs in manufacturing is not sustainable

Inclusive growth is imperative

The diminishing role of manufacturing in job creation in developing countries means that their vast numbers of underemployed and unemployed will have to struggle a lot harder for a job that pays a living wage. This will make poverty alleviation more difficult. Thus, while the current shock wave of technological changes has worsened inequality in many developed countries, it is simultaneously making it harder to reduce inequality in the developing world.

Inclusive growth has always been important, but it is now more important than ever. In a world where technological changes are rapidly and continuously reinventing how work is being done, workers need to reinvent themselves to stay productive and relevant. They cannot do so without inclusive growth.

Simply put reinventing means life time learning and training and re training

Ricardo Hausmann, director of Harvard’s Centre for International Development and a Centre senior fellow, pointed out,

“Over the course of history, it has always been easier to think about jobs that are disappearing than to imagine new jobs that will be created by the new technological possibilities.”

Advancing inclusive growth means focusing on the new possibilities. Whether in Johannesburg, Mumbai, or indeed, Janesville, it is nothing less than a precondition for the future of work for all, not just the lucky few.